Oil Shock Hits North American Paper and Board Markets Amid US-Iran War

Fastmarkets (04/07/26) Derek Mahlburg

Oil price volatility tied to the US-Iran war is putting fresh pressure on North American paper and board markets, raising concerns about both demand and costs. With oil forecast in the $80 to $90 per barrel range and potential spikes to $100, higher fuel prices could worsen inflation, strain consumer spending, and weaken demand for packaging and graphic paper. Rising diesel costs are also expected to lift trucking and fiber transportation expenses across the supply chain, squeezing producer margins. At the same time, sharply higher energy costs in Europe could temporarily improve the competitiveness of some US exports. Much will depend on how long the conflict lasts and whether producers can successfully pass along higher costs.

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